Macau Gaming Revenue Expected to Reach MOP 200 Billion in July

Key points:

– Daily average gaming revenue reached MOP 7.16bn (US$890m) in early July
– Investment banks raise full-year growth forecast from -2% to +6%
– Casino shares rally, with several hitting multi-month highs

Macau’s casino sector is doing better than expected. Leading investment banks predict that gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP 200 billion in July. This information comes from Macao Daily.

The strong start to the month has been attributed to robust summer tourism and a boost from the Jacky Cheung concert series.
Reports show that, in the first six days of July, total GGR reached MOP 43bn, equating to a daily average of MOP 7.16bn. This surpasses the daily averages of both May and June and marks a potential double-digit year-on-year growth.

JPMorgan analysts noted this marks the third straight month that revenue has exceeded seasonal norms and expectations. They believe this could signal the end of a prolonged downtrend in earnings estimates.

Good to know: UBS data shows that July’s average daily GGR is 19% higher than expected. It has outperformed the predicted MOP 6.3 billion

Citigroup has raised its July forecast from MOP 195 billion to MOP 200 billion. This is 82% of the level from July 2019. It anticipates daily averages may ease slightly to around MOP 6.28bn following the concert’s conclusion. Macquarie pointed to favourable VIP win rates of 3.3% to 3.5% (up from last year’s 2.9%-3.1%) and a 2%-4% uptick in mass market performance. UBS has adjusted its 2025 GGR forecast to 6% growth, with 2026 and 2027 also revised upward to 3% annually.

Casino stocks surged in response. Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China posted gains of 1.87% and 2.3% respectively. Wynn Macau and SJM rose 6.4% and 4.68%, both hitting six-month highs, while MGM and Melco reached fresh 52-week peaks.